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Six Structural Reasons the Long-Term Bond Yields Surge Has Further to Run
The consensus read on the long-term bond yields surge pins it on the deficit and oil prices. The data underneath that narrative suggests both explanations are, at best, incomplete, and that…
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US Mortgage Lock-In Effect Is Freezing Supply, and Quietly Inflating Prices
The consensus on the US mortgage lock-in effect treats it as a demand story: homeowners won’t move, sales have plunged, the market is stuck. What that framing underweights is the…
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PCE Inflation Methodology Changes Trim the Numbers, Not the Problem
The consensus read on today’s Bureau of Economic Analysis revisions is that the PCE inflation methodology changes brought welcome relief, shaving basis points off the numbers the Fed…
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Hedge Fund Basis Trade Now Dominates a $13.5-Trillion Repo Market
The hedge fund basis trade has become the single largest source of borrowing demand in the US repo market, a system whose true scale was itself underestimated until recently. The consensus…
