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France Debt Crisis 2027 Election: Why the Poll Numbers Make the Maths Worse
The dominant read on France’s debt crisis and 2027 election treats them as two separate stories running in parallel. The bond market data and the polling data, taken together, suggest…
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Jack Smith Basketball Hearing Exposes the GOP’s Pre-Loaded Narrative Problem
The Jack Smith basketball hearing on 29 September 2026 has been covered as an embarrassment for Senate Republicans, and on that narrow point the consensus is correct. What the coverage…
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ISM Manufacturing PMI prices surge masks a shakier expansion story
The consensus read on the September ISM Manufacturing PMI prices data is that US factories are humming along nicely into a ninth consecutive month of expansion. The number underneath that…
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US Consumer Confidence September Drop Hits Middle-Age, Lower-Income Groups Hardest
The prevailing read on US consumer confidence in September is simple: everything fell, and fell hard. What that framing obscures is that the deterioration was not evenly distributed, and the…
