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August CPI Report Fed Hike Looked Certain, Then Came the Cut
The August CPI report Fed watchers treated as a slam-dunk hike signal turned out to be the last act of a tightening cycle that reversed itself within weeks. The headline read clearly enough:…
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Fed Rate Hike September Odds Near 90% as Seven Forces Drive Yields Higher
The consensus on Wall Street has spent weeks debating whether a Fed rate hike in September is politically palatable. The bond market, the CPI data, and a cascade of structural pressures have…
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Gallup Party Affiliation Democrats Lead by Most in a Decade, But the Governance Gap Is Narrower Than It Looks
The consensus read on Gallup party affiliation data is straightforward: Democrats are surging, Republicans are in freefall, and a blue wave is coming in November. The underlying numbers are…
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House September Session Cancelled: Four Days Left Before Midterm Recess
The consensus read on the House September session cancelled announcement is that this is a scheduling inconvenience, a minor retreat by GOP leadership ahead of a tough midterm cycle. The more…
