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Warsh Jackson Hole Rate Hike Odds Surge Past 55% on Inflation Warning
The Warsh Jackson Hole rate hike probability story is simpler than the markets want it to be: a Fed chairman told the world he is not satisfied with inflation progress, and traders listened.…
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US New Home Sales July 2026 Drop 10.5% as Starts Miss Badly
The consensus read on US new home sales in July 2026 is that the 10.5% monthly decline is the headline story. It is not. The more uncomfortable number is what was happening on the supply side…
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Trump Beef Import Deal Draws Rancher Backlash as Key Details Remain Undisclosed
The consensus read on the Trump beef import deal is that it is a straightforward, if temporary, cost-of-living gesture ahead of November’s midterm elections. The rancher reaction, the…
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US Treasury Debt Buyback Plan Is a Squiggle, Not a Solution
The consensus read on the Treasury’s latest move is that the US Treasury debt buyback plan gives the bond market some breathing room. What it actually gives the market is a window…
