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Diesel Crack Spread Record Exposes a Supply Problem No Policy Can Fix
The diesel crack spread record now dominating fuel markets is being read as a price shock story. The more uncomfortable read is that it is a structural supply story, and the two are not the…
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CPI Food Spending Weights Are Lagging Reality, and the Gap Is Getting Harder to Ignore
The consensus view is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tracks consumer food spending reasonably well. The CPI food spending weights tell a rather different story, one in which the…
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Auto Loan Originations Record Masks a Deteriorating Floor Beneath
The consensus read on auto loan originations hitting a record in Q2 2026 is broadly celebratory: Americans are borrowing more than ever to buy cars, which must mean the market is healthy. The…
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Existing Home Sales Frozen as Supply Hits Multi-Year Highs Across the Board
The consensus read on the US housing market is that mortgage rates are the villain keeping existing home sales frozen at multi-year lows. Strip out the rate narrative, though, and the data…
