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Japan Yen Intervention Profits Fuel a Political Battle Over a ¥3.54 Trillion Windfall
The consensus read on Japan’s foreign exchange reserves is that a record drawdown is a sign of stress. Japan yen intervention profits tell a rather different story, one the Ministry of…
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Mortgage Rate Spread Stuck at 2 Points: Are the Buybacks Actually Working?
The consensus reading of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage-backed securities buyback programme is that it is doing its job of keeping the mortgage rate spread stuck below levels that…
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AI Data Centre Construction Costs Surge 57% as Moratoriums and Shortages Bite
The consensus on AI data centre construction costs is that the spending boom is unstoppable. The data make that harder to dismiss than the critics would like, but the constraints accumulating…
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Trump Reconciliation Bill Odds Look Even Worse Than Markets Show
The consensus read on Trump reconciliation bill odds is that the legislative window is narrow but not yet closed. The calendar, the betting markets, and the underlying structure of the bill…
